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画像はソメイヨシノの開花日を示した図。気象庁が毎年原則として３月の第１週から４月の第４週まで毎週水曜日に発表している。
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Topics in Japan #11:
Weather forecast |
* 2006/3/24 配信 ALC Newsletter No.32(ALC
International Marketing 発行)より
* クリックできる語句には、語注がついています
Just like your country, I suppose, morning news shows in Japan give the weather forecast every day. Most office workers check it before they leave home to decide how they should dress, or whether they should take an umbrella to the office. In Japan, most weather forecasts are based on the forecast released by the government agency called Kishocho, or the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). However, the JMA has been labeled a "liar" recently for its poor accuracy.
For this winter, which is almost over, the JMA had forecasted that it would be "warm." In reality, however, it turned out to be the coldest winter for twenty years! Many areas throughout Japan were buried in the heaviest snowfall on record. And on one day in February, which is usually the coldest time of the year in Japan, JMA released a forecast saying "It'll be as warm as spring tomorrow." Many people got excited at the prospect of being able to forget the coldness and enjoy spring even if only for one day. Some might have even dressed in spring clothes. However, the temperature never really rose and it turned out to be just another typical winter day! No wonder people were mad at the JMA.
And so now it's time for the JMA to drive away the "liar" reputation. They updated their supercomputer on March 1 for the first time in five years. The new computer has a processing ability twenty-eight times faster than the old one. The JMA expects to be able to forecast much more accurately from now on.
In fact, the JMA has its biggest responsibility for accuracy around this time every year --- because of the "cherry trees blossoming date forecast." I doubt if you have such forecast in your country! Many Japanese enjoy "ohanami", a special event for watching cherry blossoms, or, to be more accurate, for drinking sake under cherry blossoms. In order to have "ohanami" party with your friends or colleagues, you have to know which weekend is the best for seeing the blossoms. Cherry trees don't blossom for too long, so if the JMA gives a blossoming date that's one week earlier or later than the actual date, people will have to drink sake under bare trees without any flowers! If that really happens, the JMA's reputation will get even worse.
This year's blossoming date for Tokyo was forecasted for March 22, which is today. Has the JMA been able to prove their accuracy this time? --- I would say "Yes", because the actual blossoming was announced yesterday, just one day earlier than their forecast. Many Japanese are relieved they can now fix the "ohanami" party date, but maybe the JMA is more relieved than anyone else.
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